Hormuz Status Splits as Both Sides Claim the Waterway

The overnight split is definitional: after a third round of US strikes on Iran, Washington and Tehran are disputing the plain status of the Strait of Hormuz, one side calling it open, the other calling it closed, per Bloomberg. This column had Oman producing a signed shipping pledge by this morning. No pledge came. That failure settles Thursday's tripwire against the talks and for the strikes as the operative policy. Retaliation hit at least five Arab states overnight, the clearest sign yet that Iran's response has stopped discriminating between the country that struck it and the neighbours hosting US assets. Kai Tanner's cyber column today catches a second failure pattern: Progress Software issued an unattributed shutdown order on ShareFile, its managed file transfer product, that reproduces the exact silent disclosure shape that preceded the 2023 MOVEit breach, and the exposed surface sat public for three months before the vendor spoke. A Hong Kong compliance officer running third party risk registers needs to pull ShareFile off the approved vendor list today, not wait for a CVE. Senator Lindsey Graham has died. His death removes the Senate's most reliable vote for continued Iran strikes at the exact moment that policy is being tested. Watch whether Hormuz shipping insurers raise war risk premiums by Tuesday; that number will say more than either government's statement.