Home sales value in Hong Kong climbed 71.5 percent in May, according to Land Registry data released this week, the sharpest monthly gain since the government removed all stamp duty surcharges in February 2024. Agents in Sham Shui Po are taking sealed bids. A two-bedroom in Tuen Mun that listed at HK$3.4 million in January is asking HK$4.1 million this week, and flats under HK$5 million are clearing faster than the secondary market has moved in three years. Two engines are running: local pent-up demand freed by the duty removals, and mainland buyers moving capital into Hong Kong property before Beijing's tightened outbound investment controls, reported this week by The Business Times, take formal effect.

The May figures record transactions that closed before the PRC controls tightened. Contracts signed in June will appear in the Land Registry's mid-July report. If mainland participation drops, the HK$3-6 million secondary market carries the most exposure. Local affordability thins above HK$4 million. That Tuen Mun flat is still asking. The Housing Bureau's Five-Year Plan enters public consultation this week, and its supply commitments for 2026-2031 will be set before the June transaction data clears the registry.