At the Yau Ma Tei wholesale fruit market at five in the morning, Lam Chi-wai was repricing a box of Shandong cherries for the third time in a week. The box came in at HK$420; he cleared the same grade last June at HK$360. The difference is not the cherries. His Guangdong supplier raised the minimum shipment value in March. His Kowloon freight agent added HK$18 per consignment in April after diesel moved. His revolving credit facility has sat at prime plus 2.5 percent since 2022; his bank's commercial desk has not run the annual review. The HKMA has held the base rate at 4 percent since January. The box is priced at HK$430.

The Federal Reserve held in early May; the HKMA followed on May 8. For listed companies and mortgage holders, the rate feeds through in weeks. For facilities in the SME bracket -- the trade credit lines that run the Yau Ma Tei floor, typically priced at prime plus 2 to 3 percent and reviewed once a year -- the rate does not move until the bank calls in the file. Lam's facility review is booked for Q4 2026. The box of Shandong cherries is priced at HK$430.