The senolytic thesis in APAC has $1.2 billion in private capital behind it as of Q1 2026. The most cited human support is the AFFIRM-LITE Phase 1/2 pilot (NCT04685590, dasatinib plus quercetin, n=33, 12 weeks, Mayo Clinic), which reported reductions in p16INK4a and p21 expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Those are surrogate markers for senescent cell burden, not functional aging outcomes. The capital is pricing a population drug. The trial enrolled 33 people.

In April 2026, NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation issued draft guidance requiring any IND application for a geriatric enhancement indication to name either a validated functional primary endpoint (gait speed under a specified protocol, grip strength against a published reference range) or a hard clinical event. Epigenetic clock scores and NAD+ levels will not qualify as primary endpoints without a pre-specified correlation to a functional measure in the same study population. Two China-based senolytic programs with Phase 1 filings built on epigenetic age surrogates are now facing amended protocol requests. The CDE's response window closes September 30, 2026.