Mrs Lam at the Pei Ho fabric stall did not have much to say about the HK$380 million flat CK Asset just moved in Happy Valley. "Who buys that?" she said. Fair question. The same week CK cleared a record nine-figure sale, John Lee opened the annual Policy Address consultation and said more firms arrived in Hong Kong in the first half than in any comparable period -- which is nice, but Mrs Lam's supplier in Dongguan raised minimums in May and her bank is still quoting prime-plus on the revolving credit she needs to cover the gap.

Trade is the one number you can actually hang something on: goods throughput hit 40 percent above a year ago in May, per RTHK, which is real money moving through real container terminals and real warehouses off Kwai Tsing. The cross-boundary welfare payment extension announced this week adds a small structural floor for the older Shenzhen-side retirees who split time between districts. Both pieces of news are the kind that shows up in a speech. What shows up at the counter is that Mrs Lam's credit line has not moved since Q4, and the Policy Address consultation closes before the August bank review cycle -- so if there is relief in there for SME revolving credit, it will not clear until after the festive-order crunch in October.