GEOPOLITICAL DESK · HONG KONG · WEEKLY · ARCHIVE

Previous Columns

14 columns
May 18, 2026
NDAA Markup Arrives Before the Deal
The Beijing summit converted Taiwan arms transfers from a US defense obligation into a trade concession, and Taiwan's defense planning now incorporates a variable that Beijing can move.
Mei Chen
May 17, 2026
Trump Is Pricing Taiwan, Not Defending It
Trump's refusal to commit to Taiwan's defense is not deterrence doctrine; it is price discovery, and Beijing is treating the US commitment as negotiable inventory.
Mei Chen
May 16, 2026
The Summit Framework Neither Capital Can Sustain
The Trump-Xi summit produced a Taiwan framework both capitals can describe but neither can operationalize; the PLAN's nine ships make the gap visible.
Vincent Lai
May 16, 2026
Nine Warships, No Defense Commitment
Trump's refusal after the Beijing summit to say whether the US would defend Taiwan gave Beijing the answer it needed before the warships were underway.
Mei Chen
May 16, 2026
Trump's Taiwan Clarity Runs One Way
Trump warned Taipei against independence and declined to commit to its defense; the summit produced not strategic ambiguity but asymmetric clarity that Beijing can sequence against.
Mei Chen
May 16, 2026
What the Nine Warships Actually Confirmed
The Trump-Xi summit's deliberate silence on Taiwan's defense guarantee was not diplomatic hedging; it was operational clearance that the PLA's Eastern Theater Command confirmed within hours.
Vincent Lai
May 15, 2026
The Framework Arrives After the Posture
The Trump-Xi Taiwan framework is being negotiated above a military posture layer, defined by Philippine basing arrangements and AUKUS hull allocation schedules, that no summit text can undo.
Vincent Lai
May 11, 2026
The Budget Cut Before the Summit
Washington's decision to frame Taiwan's defense spending reduction as a China concession tells Taipei what it needs to know about the forthcoming summit's terms.
Mei Chen
May 10, 2026
Duration Risk the Summit Cannot Clear
The Trump-Xi meeting extends the Taiwan Strait interval rather than clearing it, leaving PBOC open-market operations and SAR capital flow architecture holding unpriced duration nobody is discounting.
Vincent Lai
May 8, 2026
Beijing's Arithmetic Before the Summit Table
With Washington pressing simultaneously on Hormuz and Taiwan, Beijing's insistence on setting preconditions tells you more about its balance sheet calculus than its political posture.
Vincent Lai
May 4, 2026
Distributed Deterrence and the Manila Variable
Washington's anti-ship missile deployment near Taiwan marks a shift toward permanent deterrence architecture, but the Philippine-China diplomatic thaw introduces a variable Washington cannot manage.
Mei Chen
May 1, 2026
The Balance Sheet Beneath the Fleet
Beijing's physical buildout in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea constitutes a financial commitment that forecloses optionality well before any political decision is made.
Vincent Lai
April 28, 2026
When Drill Tempo Becomes Duration Pricing
As PLA exercise tempo reaches a sustained concurrent high and Beijing closes institutional conduits from Singapore outward, regional balance sheets are beginning to price the perimeter rather than the politics.
Vincent Lai
April 28, 2026
China's War Plan Reaches Past Taiwan
Beijing has repriced its Taiwan contingency to account for Japanese intervention, and the platforms Taiwan is buying were not designed for that war.
Mei Chen